You want: ◊ error estimates for short and long term forecasts
◊ to be able to vary the confidence limits by airport and pax type
◊ to know the potential downside exposure on each forecast
You Get:
◊ an error range for all airports or for airports of your choice
◊ an error range which varies with different confidence levels
Are You Eligible? A Single Necessary Conditions
◊ full corporate World Passenger Forecasts subscription
The Risk Pricing Module Summary
Because the World Airport Forecasts are developed systematically they allow users to determine what is the probable range of error based on a comparison and analysis of actuals against forecast.
Error ranges depend on the spread of errors rather than the absolute amount.
The higher the degree of confidence required, the higher will be the probable error range.
A Data Example; Heathrow, Hong Kong and Singapore Compared
The risk analysis is updated every month and the major factor determining the level of risk is the shape of the travel demand curve at each airport.
The three airport comparison shows how error and risk have moved over the last two years:
◊ in 2009 as travel demand plunged the errors attached to HKG and SIN rocketed upwards
◊ for LHR the month to month movements were less extreme
◊ in 2010 growth has resumed and steadied in Asia/Pacific with the result that error and risk have fallen back
◊ LHR has gone in the opposite direction; forecasting for London Heathrow is now more hazardous than it was last year:
Total Passenger Forecasts in 2009 and 2010
Airport
Year
Error %
Hong Kong
2009
6.2
Hong Kong
2010
0.9
Heathrow
2009
3.1
Heathrow
2010
8.2
Singapore
2009
6.6
Singapore
2010
1.7
Because the forecasting methodology has remained unchanged, the year on year variations are attributable to the random noise which has surrounded recent data.
REVISED 2012
Passenger Profiling
Get the latest forecasts for departing international passengers
◊ Pick the Right Terminal Identify the best terminals by passenger flows and class of passenger
◊ Select the Dates Which weeks deliver the best passenger profiles for the brand?
◊ First and Business Targeting the premium traveller
◊ Who's in Departures? Pick an airport terminal, a time of day and know the passengers waiting to fly or shop by class, destination and airline nationality
