| The Latest Forecasts; Uploaded to Subscribers' Websites Today |
| The 2012 Passenger Forecasts continue their drift downwards. The movement is not savage. It is not even regular and it does not apply uniformly. The patchiness is evident across the regions. |
| This latest forecast for Asia/Pacific internationals has flattened; the most likely outcome for the year is growth of just over 7% points, exactly as it was last month. The downside to Asia/Pacific demand is considered slight while the upside is presently speculative. |
| The latest forecast for Europe is a cause for concern. The forecast to forecast movement, again for internationals, is a tiny negative of a tenth of a percentage point. February's 29th day bonus is not a factor. The split month timing of Easter is. |
| The incoming data from late declaring European airports confirms the trend and adds to the concern which centres on the back end of the year. The projection for the next quarter is low and has dropped the most since the last forecast point. It may very well slide further. |
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| March Global Data; One-Off Factors Mask the Trend Everywhere |
| February was lifted by the extra Leap Year day. March benefited from Easter departures. April will suffer from the loss of half the Easter traffic. |
| With well over half of possible airports reporting, the March Total passenger summary is still posing serious questions about the strength of European demand. |
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| Total Pax; Regional Summary |
Asia/Pacific
Up by 10.3% so far this month on a sample of 36% of possible reporting airports, demand is better than forecast and should enjoy some immunity from any possible European contagion... |
Europe
March, presently unadjusted for the early Easter bonus, now stands at 3.4%. Adjust February for the extra 29th day and the month is flat... |
Growth Regions
Africa is better than positive against a low base admittedly. The Middle East is roaring. Latin America is solid showing 8% on a two thirds sample |
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| The 5.4% for March to-date still awaits the arrival of the US airports. |
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| March Internationals up by 6.9% |
| This month's 6.9% follows an inflated 6.0% in February. |
| Patchy...Very |
| International growth in Europe is 5% from 54% of reporting airports. In February month it was recorded as 5.1% but was, in fact, 1.7%, after Leap Year adjustment. Spanish internationals in March were negative for the second month in a row. |
| In Asia/Pacific 30% of airports have delivered growth of 14.3% which is well above trend. There are erratic month on month movements but the direction for the region is clear. |
| Latin America is up by 7.1% on a sample which is just over a third. |
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