THE RATE OF DECLINE GATHERS PACE AND MOREOVER...
  11 December 2008
 
Growing evidence that the pace of decline in travel demand is increasing is clear from the latest airport traffic data and forecasts.
Within the latest set of airport by airport projections, the Quarter 1 forecast for those airports with October data in place is worrying. In the first three months of next year:
- total traffic for those airports alone will decline by 2.7%
- international traffic will decline by 2.3%.
It is also important that these airports represent just a fraction under 60% of total world traffIc; they include the largest of the hubs across all regions.
What is more concerning still is that the November actuals, for a small sample certainly, are down by (7.2%). Furthermore a direct and chilling comparison is available and relates to airports who are fastest to get their data out. Airports which contributed to the( 2.7%) Q1 forecast are themselves down by (7.0%) in November.
MOREOVER...
Because the rate of fall is increasing the present level of forecast activity looks more and more unsustainable. Even at their new levels they do not reflect the tone and content of economic and industrial news stories presently hitting the front pages. Neither are they in line with what forecasters, like the IMF, envisage for the world economy next year.
It follows that the 2009 forecasts, and especially the international forecasts, will be subject to further substantial downward revision just as soon as there is sufficient actual data available for the month of November,
In the context of the forecast for all 800 airports in the module, it is probable that the downward revisions may be even more severe but they are only quantifiable when airports release their traffic numbers.
THE 2009 Q1 INTERNATIONAL IS NOW NEGATIVE
The idea that international passenger numbers could in some way escape the downturn is nailed. In the first Quarter of 2009:
- airports with October data, which is more than half of world traffic, are forecast to see their internationals drop by 2.3%
- taking the entire forecast package of 800 airports, the view for 2009 as a whole is that demand will drop.
This is the first occasion when the international projection has shown up negative.
NOVEMBER AIRPORT RESULTS
The 7.2% reported drop in passengers covers less that 10% of traffic, but it does include some names of importance
Frankfurt; FRA Germany
Latest report shows passengers down by -7%.
Munich; MUC Germany
Passenger numbers for the month are down by -5.2%.
Seoul Incheon; ICN South Korea
Passenger numbers for the month are down by -16.3%.
Zurich; ZRH Switzerland
Reports a passenger increase of 2.8%.
Oslo; OSL Norway
Just reported: passenger numbers drop by -10.2%.
Vienna; VIE Austria
Just reported: passenger numbers drop by -8.4%.
Arlanda; ARN Sweden
Latest report shows passengers down by -13.5%.
Manchester; MAN UK
Latest report shows passengers down by -9%.
Seoul, Gimpo; GMP South Korea
Passenger numbers for the month are down by -4.3%.
Helsinki; HEL Finland
Just reported: passenger numbers drop by -0.8%.
 
Get the full summary here
NOVEMBER AIRLINE DATA FROM THE USA
Early indications of the direction of November statistics are now confirmed as the majority of the US majors have now declared their results:
- airlines representing just under a half of total traffic
- are down by 11.3% compared with last year
get the summary here.
Delta Airlines; USA
Latest report shows passengers down by -7.5% ...
Southwest Airlines; USA
Latest report shows passengers down by -10% ...
American Airlines; USA
Latest report shows passengers down by -15.9% ...
Continental Airlines; USA
Latest report shows passengers down by -12.5% ...
Northwest Airlines; USA
Passenger numbers for the month are down by -10.5% ...
US Airways; USA
Just reported: passenger numbers drop by -8.8% ...
United Airlines; USA
Latest report shows passengers down by -17.8% ...
 
Country and Region Summaries
Global Forecasts   Regional Forecasts   Country Forecasts
   
 
 

To change your email address or to stop receiving communications from Air4casts please use this link

To register for the monthly air passenger forecasts and traffic update newsletters please use this link

Air4casts GmbH
rue du Rhone 14
1204 Geneva
Geneva
Switzerland
Tel: + 41 22 819 18 18
Fax: + 41 22 594 80 37
Website: www.air4casts.com
  Disclaimer
This email is confidential. It may be legally privileged. If you are not the addressee you may not copy, forward, disclose or use any part of it. If you have received this message in error, please delete it and all copies from your system and notify the sender immediately by return email. Internet communications cannot be assumed to be timely, secure, error or virus-clear. The sender accepts no liability for errors or omissions.