| THE RATE OF DECLINE GATHERS PACE AND MOREOVER... |
|
| |
11 December 2008 |
| |
 |
| Growing evidence that the pace of decline in travel demand is increasing is clear from the latest airport traffic data and forecasts. |
Within the latest set of airport by airport projections, the Quarter 1 forecast for those airports with October data in place is worrying. In the first three months of next year:
- total traffic for those airports alone will decline by 2.7%
- international traffic will decline by 2.3%.
It is also important that these airports represent just a fraction under 60% of total world traffIc; they include the largest of the hubs across all regions. |
| What is more concerning still is that the November actuals, for a small sample certainly, are down by (7.2%). Furthermore a direct and chilling comparison is available and relates to airports who are fastest to get their data out. Airports which contributed to the( 2.7%) Q1 forecast are themselves down by (7.0%) in November. |
|
| MOREOVER... |
| Because the rate
of fall is increasing the present level of forecast
activity looks more and more unsustainable. Even
at their new levels they do not reflect the tone
and content of economic and industrial news stories
presently hitting the front pages. Neither are they
in line with what forecasters, like the IMF, envisage
for the world economy next year. |
| It follows that the 2009 forecasts, and especially the international forecasts, will be subject to further substantial downward revision just as soon as there is sufficient actual data available for the month of November, |
| In the context of the forecast for all 800 airports in the module, it is probable that the downward revisions may be even more severe but they are only quantifiable when airports release their traffic numbers. |
|
| THE 2009 Q1 INTERNATIONAL IS NOW NEGATIVE |
The idea that international passenger numbers could in some way escape the downturn is nailed. In the first Quarter of 2009:
- airports with October data, which is more than half of world traffic, are forecast to see their internationals drop by 2.3%
- taking the entire forecast package of 800 airports, the view for 2009 as a whole is that demand will drop. |
| This is the first occasion when the international projection has shown up negative. |
|
| NOVEMBER AIRPORT RESULTS |
| The 7.2% reported drop in passengers covers less that 10% of traffic, but it does include some names of importance |
|
|
| NOVEMBER AIRLINE DATA FROM THE USA |
Early indications of the direction of November statistics are now confirmed as the majority of the US majors have now declared their results:
- airlines representing just under a half of total traffic
- are down by 11.3% compared with last year
get the summary here. |
|
|
