| UK Passenger Forecasts; Quarter 4 2010 |
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| The latest forecast update for 37 airports was uploaded for subscribers on August 23 2010. |
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| The Next Quarter and the Full Year 2010 |
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| The focus on the UK is important because it is still tending to lag behind other countries in the region and the question is therefore when, if at all this year, might a recovery of substance be expected to develop. |
| The latest January data from 42 airports is miserable because it shows a decline of some (6.4%) percentage points in passenger numbers. Blaming the January weather simply will not do. |
| It also needs to be compared with the total passenger forecast over the same period for all European airports which is 3.1%. |
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| % change |
International |
Domestic |
Total |
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| Next Quarter |
-1.5 |
-7.9 |
-2.6 |
| Full Year |
-4.0 |
-9.2 |
-4.8 |
| Note; the imbalance between International, Domestic and Totals is because forecasts for some airports are only available at the Total level |
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| With concentration on the numbers for the next Quarter, a negative forecast makes for unhappy contemplation. |
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| The Positive Forecasts by Airport; The Top Five Selected |
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| There are 12 airports included in the latest forecasts which are expected to be positive in the coming Quarter. To access the forecasts for these other airports a subscription is necessary. |
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| % change |
International |
Domestic |
Total |
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| London Heathrow |
1.4 |
-5.7 |
0.8 |
| Bristol |
22.4 |
0.0 |
17.4 |
| Belfast City |
0.0 |
0.0 |
14.3 |
| Prestwick |
8.3 |
-11.6 |
3.3 |
| Jersey |
0.6 |
0.0 |
0.6 |
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| What the top five summary shows by omission is that long list of mainly international airports which are not yet positive and need to be positive if any of the business damage is to be repaired. |
| London Heathrow will always be a special case in that it is the only national airport with a truly international cross-section. London City's destination profile is certainly international; its user profile is not and its passenger numbers fell by (8.1%) last month. Stansted is a Ryanair airport which has managed to fall out with Ryanair. |
| The boom years were fueled by multiple annual trips financed with the use of multiple maxed out credit cards. Consumers are now reducing their indebtedness and face virtual exchange rate parity on trips to their preferred European destinations. |
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