| USA Passenger Forecasts; Quarter 4 2010 |
|
| The latest forecast update for 223 airports was uploaded for subscribers on August 23 2010. |
|
| The Next Quarter and the Full Year 2010 |
|
| A recent forecast produced by the Federal Aviation Authority for US traffic in 2010 is cheerfully optimistic. As a part of its longer term view it sets out a 3.3% increase as the likely outcome for US Mainline and Foreign Flag Carriers over the year. |
| The FAA is not alone on this bull track. IATA has recently posted a view that demand in North America is expected to rise by 6.2% in 2010. |
| |
| % change |
International |
Domestic |
Total |
 |
| Next Quarter |
3.6 |
-0.8 |
-0.2 |
| Full Year |
2.4 |
-0.3 |
0.2 |
| Note; the imbalance between International, Domestic and Totals is because forecasts for some airports are only available at the Total level |
|
|
|
|
| The Air4casts view is, by comparison, abidingly glum. For the second Quarter the forecast is no more than 1.3%. For the full year it is even lower. |
| It may indeed be that demand will lift over the summer months. There is speculation, but then there always is, that consumers' expenditure is on the up. History shows that when the recovery comes it comes in the summer. |
|
| The Positive Forecasts by Airport; The Top Five Selected |
|
| There are 116 airports included in the latest forecasts which are expected to be positive in the coming Quarter. To access the detail and the forecasts for these other airports a subscription is necessary. |
| |
| % change |
Domestic |
Total |
|
| Chicago OHare |
-0.4 |
1.1 |
| Los Angeles |
-1.7 |
0.1 |
| Denver |
0.4 |
0.6 |
| San Francisco |
2.1 |
2.8 |
| Phoenix |
-1.3 |
0.5 |
|
|
|
| |
| Any US airport forecast is disadvantaged by the relatively late announcement of data. Yet the the more recent airport traffic announcements do not point to a radical change in direction. |
|
|
| sign up for the newsletter, click here |
| get back to the Newsletter |
