| |
For the 18 US airlines under review, and they represent the vast majority of the major carriers:
◊ July produced a 0.5% change in passenger numbers
◊ this month's result is the best since the downturn began. |
|
| Data Summary |
|
No Airlines |
US Traffic Share % |
Change Pax % |
 |
| July Data |
18 |
53.3 |
0.5 |
 |
|
| Could this spell the end of the see-saw pattern? Could it usher in a much awaited summer of positive growth? |
|
| The crucial factor is confidence. Consumer confidence, the confident expectation of economic well being, is an essential pre-condition for rising travel demand. It is closely linked to the rate of job creation. The US problem is that private sector companies are not yet hiring again. The Government is, but census work is temporary work. Consumers will wait until their local companies show they are on the re-bound. |
| The May jobs data may be a one-off but GDP in the first Quarter was not as healthy as it was in the last Quarter of 2009. Caution is recommended. |
|
| The Last 12 Months |
|
|
% change |
| Aug |
-3.7 |
| Sep |
1.8 |
| Oct |
-0.7 |
| Nov |
2.2 |
| Dec |
-0.6 |
| Jan |
1.7 |
| Feb |
-1.8 |
| Mar |
2.7 |
| Apr |
0.5 |
| May |
2.9 |
| Jun |
2.6 |
| Jul |
0.5 |
|
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| The Top 10 US Airlines in Detail for March |
| |
| The spread of results form the larger airlines is widening; there is a (6.5%) point negative and a 7.8% point positive. |
Delta Airlines; USA
Latest report shows total passengers ahead by 0.5% ... |
Southwest Airlines; USA
Reports a passenger increase of 4.5% ... |
American Airlines; USA
Passenger flows rise by 2.1% ... |
Continental Airlines; USA
Passenger traffic up by 1.6% ... |
US Airways; USA
Declares an increase in passenger numbers of 1.4% ... |
Republic Airlines; USA
Passenger flows rise by 7.9% ... |
AirTran; USA
Total passengers for the month are up by 6.6% ... |
American Eagle; USA
Just reported: passenger numbers drop by -6.5% ... |
Alaska Airlines; USA
Total passengers reported up by 5.4% ... |
Pinnacle Airlines; USA
Just reported: passenger numbers drop by -2% ... |
| |
The Load Factor summary for 18 US airlines shows that the month of July saw a 86.7% utilization of capacity. |
|
| Load Factor Summary |
|
No Airlines |
US Traffic Share % |
Load Factor % |
|
| July Data |
18 |
53.3 |
86.7 |
|
|
| Load Factors have been broadly flat since March. |
| What is different in May is that airline capacity has finally turned positive compared with a year ago.
|
|
| Load factors, excepting seasonal factors, cannot really be expected to move ahead by any more than a fraction. The low eighties does not represent a poor performance. |
|
| The Last 12 Months |
|
|
% change |
| Aug |
84.9 |
| Sep |
79.7 |
| Oct |
82.1 |
| Nov |
78.8 |
| Dec |
80.3 |
| Jan |
75.7 |
| Feb |
76.7 |
| Mar |
82.7 |
| Apr |
81.7 |
| May |
82.2 |
| Jun |
86.1 |
| Jul |
86.7 |
|
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| |
Capacity levels for 18 US airlines shows that the month of July saw a 2.5% year on year movement |
|
| Data Summary |
|
No Airlines |
US Traffic Share % |
Capacity Change % |
|
| July Data |
18 |
53.3 |
2.5 |
|
|
| It is perfectly possible to argue that May's welcome additions to capacity are only really a reflection of how deep the cuts had to be this time last year. |
|
| The increase is by no means a huge one. But it is the first in a very long time and it may indicate that airline managements are not quite so inconfident as they have been. |
| Grabbing at straws is a poor basis for a rational assessment of the prospects for this summer. This straw is long overdue. |
|
| The Last 12 Months Capacity Changes |
|
|
% change |
| Aug |
-5.3 |
| Sep |
-3.0 |
| Oct |
-4.1 |
| Nov |
-3.0 |
| Dec |
-2.2 |
| Jan |
-1.4 |
| Feb |
-4.0 |
| Mar |
-0.3 |
| Apr |
-1.2 |
| May |
1.8 |
| Jun |
2.6 |
| Jul |
2.5 |
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